I wouldn’t have predicted the result even if I have to guess it million different times.
Reason 1: Division
Like Hillary says “America is more deeply divided than we thought”, our nation is made up by many different components with individual mindset. For all the things being equal as human we use emotion to define and measure things on many occasions in our life. We thought Hillary is more reasonable to win and we emotionally assumed that people around us who think that way were the majority of people who were going to vote in Nov 8th. And when they were not we were shocked.
Quite the opposite many people are different from what we thought they are. They live in different regions and have different perspective and many of those we are not likely to accept because it’s human nature to think that “we” are the only existence in the world the others don’t exist or we pretend they are not there the whole time. That’s why we like to live around with people like one of us and stay away with people who don’t speak the same language (eg: immigrants).
However, we are an immigrated nation and we came with different background in the world with varied time period. There are people who settled down here long enough to believe they are the owners but people who came later are the foreigners. When we calculate the outcome we can’t leave out the “other” group instead of thinking the “collective” group that we live in.
Also, the pre-election polls went all wrong maybe because the actual outcome is just too complex to predict? and it’s just like it’s too hard to predict what people would do? In this article , the ‘Complexity’ of Human Society theory is “concentration of control and decision-making makes those systems ineffective”, and “we’ve become fundamentally confused about what the decisions are, and what their consequences are. And we can’t make a connection between them”; in addition, “describing the behavior of atoms is more complex than describing the collective behavior of the many atoms that make up a human being.”
It implies that many times we short-sighted something that we thought we knew but the consequence came out way more out of control than we could have even seen at the first place, and the divided nation is leaning to a direction that is way more complex than the system had once thought it’s going to be an easy fix. We are people after all by “people” we mean different million minds that have million different perspectives and are composed differently inside us.
Reason 2: Representation
Trump is a representative of human being like saying the wrong things or say things that are not political correct but that characteristics of his is identical to many people who want to say the same things without concerning about the correctness or others’ feelings. General crowd is a group of people who like to speak things they believe and find it difficult or troublesome to prove its correctness before the words coming out from their mouth. Trump has big character while Hillary is flat (means she says the right things but no one cares any more because they heard it so many times in the past), and she represents so much as urban educated group, minority group, feminist group, LGBT group but not so much of the people outside of these groups, and this other side has big numbers in the society as well. In other words they want to have impact in the society and political system as well. Her”basket of deplorable” comment in the past has excluded many people who believe they have influence in the society and consequently they would fight until the end to go against Hillary.
As a potential president, some exclusive comment like that just shows that you have arrogant personality and in many ways people are not liking it.
The other trait of hers is she connects with many big corporations that many people don’t trust anymore. We are the 99% and a person that has relationship and business with the 1% is not going to be really welcomed because we all hate the super rich in this society. Also she has compromised in between two parties in the past which means that she might not be able to get things done for us. Meanwhile she supported the unnecessary war before make us to doubt her leadership in the country; her support of military would potentially increase our tax and make the county more poor.
On the other hand, Trump has no political history to be compared with hers. As a result psychologically people would more likely to give a hand to someone new rather than someone who we kinda know what would happen under her leadership in the country.
So it’s all about the representation of each persona on two sides we came out with to go against the opponent consciously or inevitably.
Reason 3: Tactical Dispositions
Also she supported war and military in the past most of the people think it’s going to increasing the spending on war and it will economically harm the country, so on a lot of concern of Hillary, many people had chosen Trump because they have no trust on the other side will bring them the outcome they want.
On the other hand if Bernie Sanders is the president candidate against Trump it will be a different story. Sometime experience is not the strength, and the Democrat need to give chance to the right persona with characteristics like Sanders to go against opponent like Trump who has loud voice as well.
Sanders has a lot of policies that people care about like focusing on reducing college debt by making the college free for everyone. Instead of flat talking he has more plans that people feel in heart they could connect to instead of a character who has been in politics for long but people has been skeptical thinking and doubted her.
In terms of electing a president we want someone charismatic and truth-worthy, and Sander could present that so he would have been a good strategical move to go against someone big and loud like Trump. After all people should see that personality has big influence on presidential election, and we should have all stepped back and looked at the whole picture before Hillary was moved up as the Democrat candidate.